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The premise of independence among subjects in the same cluster/group often fails in practice, and models that rely on such untenable assumption can produce misleading results. To overcome this severe deficiency, we introduce a new…
Large amounts of traffic can lead to negative effects such as increased car accidents, air pollution, and significant time wasted. Understanding traffic speeds on any given road segment can be highly beneficial for traffic management…
Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often…
When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…
Motivated by a dataset of burglaries in Chicago, USA, we introduce a novel framework to analyze time series of count data combining common multivariate time series models with latent position network models. This novel methodology allows us…
The solutions of Hamiltonian equations are known to describe the underlying phase space of a mechanical system. In this article, we propose a novel spatio-temporal model using a strategic modification of the Hamiltonian equations,…
In this paper, we aim to improve multivariate anomaly detection (AD) by modeling the \textit{time-varying non-linear spatio-temporal correlations} found in multivariate time series data . In multivariate time series data, an anomaly may be…
Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…
Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a…
Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…
In a modern observational study based on healthcare databases, the number of observations and of predictors typically range in the order of $10^5$ ~ $10^6$ and of $10^4$ ~ $10^5$. Despite the large sample size, data rarely provide…
Spatially and temporally varying coefficient (STVC) models are currently attracting attention as a flexible tool to explore the spatio-temporal patterns in regression coefficients. However, these models often struggle with balancing…
In oncology clinical trials, tumor burden (TB) stands as a crucial longitudinal biomarker, reflecting the toll a tumor takes on a patient's prognosis. With certain treatments, the disease's natural progression shows the tumor burden…
Long-term traffic prediction has always been a challenging task due to its dynamic temporal dependencies and complex spatial dependencies. In this paper, we propose a model that combines hybrid Transformer and spatio-temporal…
A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…
Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…
Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians. While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of…
We explore the use of Gibbs sampling in estimating the noise properties of individual pulsars and illustrate its effectiveness using the NANOGrav 11-year data set. We find that Gibbs sampling noise modeling (GM) is more efficient than the…
Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…
Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…