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The abundance of fine-grained spatio-temporal data, such as traffic sensor networks, offers vast opportunities for scientific discovery. However, inferring causal relationships from such observational data remains challenging, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Xintong Li , Haoran Zhang , Xiao Zhou

As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-20 Pan Deng , Yu Zhao , Junting Liu , Xiaofeng Jia , Mulan Wang

A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-15 Dimitris Korobilis

Multivariate time series (MTS) data often include a heterogeneous mix of non-Gaussian distributional features (asymmetry, multimodality, heavy tails) and data types (continuous and discrete variables). Traditional MTS methods based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 John Zito , Daniel R. Kowal

Predicting species distributions using occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection is now commonplace in ecology. Recently, modelling spatial and temporal autocorrelation was proposed to alleviate the lack of replication in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-10 André Luís Luza , Didier Alard , Frédéric Barraquand

Climate models are essential for understanding large-scale climate dynamics and long-term climate change, yet they exhibit systematic biases when compared with historical observations. Existing multivariate bias correction (MBC) approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Theresa Meier , Erwan Koch , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Thibault Vatter

Although extensive research exists in spatial modeling, few studies have addressed finite mixture model-based clustering methods for spatial data. Finite mixture models, especially Gaussian mixture models, particularly suffer from high…

State space models (SSMs) are widely used to describe dynamic systems. However, when the likelihood of the observations is intractable, parameter inference for SSMs cannot be easily carried out using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-21 Zhaoran Hou , Samuel W. K. Wong

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

We study general coordinate-wise MCMC schemes (such as Metropolis-within-Gibbs samplers), which are commonly used to fit Bayesian non-conjugate hierarchical models. We relate their convergence properties to the ones of the corresponding…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-12 Filippo Ascolani , Gareth O. Roberts , Giacomo Zanella

Spatio-temporal areal data can be seen as a collection of time series which are spatially correlated according to a specific neighboring structure. Incorporating the temporal and spatial dimension into a statistical model poses challenges…

This paper investigates the modeling of an important class of degradation data, which are collected from a spatial domain over time; for example, the surface quality degradation. Like many existing time-dependent stochastic degradation…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-29 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo , Jayant Kalagnanam

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Rasool Fakoor , Jonas Mueller , Zachary C. Lipton , Pratik Chaudhari , Alexander J. Smola

Inferring information related to users enables to highly improve the quality of many mobile services. For example, knowing the demographic characteristics of a user allows a service to display more accurate information. According to the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-03-13 Arielle Moro , Benoît Garbinato , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Zehao Liu , Mengzhou Gao , Pengfei Jiao

In an intelligent transportation system, the key problem of traffic forecasting is how to extract periodic temporal dependencies and complex spatial correlations. Current state-of-the-art methods for predicting traffic flow are based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Zichuan Liu , Rui Zhang , Chen Wang , Zhu Xiao , Hongbo Jiang

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-25 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Recently, global pulsar timing arrays have released results from searching for a nano-Hertz gravitational wave background signal. Although there has not been any definite evidence of the presence of such a signal in residuals of pulsar…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-10-12 A. Samajdar , G. Shaifullah , A. Sesana , J. Antoniadis , M. Burgay , D. J. Champion , S. Chen , M. Kramer , J. W. McKee , M. B. Mickaliger , E. Van der Wateren

We analyze the complexity of Gibbs samplers for inference in crossed random effect models used in modern analysis of variance. We demonstrate that for certain designs the plain vanilla Gibbs sampler is not scalable, in the sense that its…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth O. Roberts , Giacomo Zanella

We present a novel framework for concomitant dimension reduction and clustering. This framework is based on a novel class of Bayesian clustering factor models. These models assume a factor model structure where the vectors of common factors…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Hwasoo Shin , Marco A. R. Ferreira , Allison N. Tegge