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Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

In this paper, we present several heavy-tailed distributions belonging to the new class J of distributions obeying the principle of a single big jump introduced by Beck et al. [1]. We describe the structure of this class from different…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Hui Xu , Michael Scheutzow , Yuebao Wang , Zhaolei Cui

We consider a supercritical branching random walk in time-inhomogeneous random environment with a random absorption barrier, i.e.,in each generation, only the individuals born below the barrier can survive and reproduce. Assume that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-06 You Lv , Wenming Hong

We introduce a model for the evolution of species triggered by generation of novel features and exhaustive combination with other available traits. Under the assumption that innovations are rare, we obtain a bursty branching process of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-29 Stephanie Keller-Schmidt , Konstantin Klemm

Environmental changes greatly influence the evolution of populations. Here, we study the dynamics of a population of two strains, one growing slightly faster than the other, competing for resources in a time-varying binary environment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-28 Ami Taitelbaum , Robert West , Michael Assaf , Mauro Mobilia

In a critically self--organized model of punctuated equilibrium, boundaries determine peculiar scaling of the size distribution of evolutionary avalanches. This is derived by an inhomogeneous generalization of standard branching processes,…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 G. Caldarelli , C. Tebaldi , A. L. Stella

We are interested in modeling Darwinian evolution resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. The population is modeled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Benjamin Jourdain , Sylvie Méléard , Wojbor Woyczynski

We investigate a simple quantitative genetics model subjet to a gradual environmental change from the viewpoint of the phylogenies of the living individuals. We aim to understand better how the past traits of their ancestors are shaped by…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-22 Vincent Calvez , Benoît Henry , Sylvie Méléard , Viet Chi Tran

We establish a general sufficient condition for a sequence of Galton Watson branching processes in varying environment to converge weakly. This condition extends previous results by allowing offspring distributions to have infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-22 Vincent Bansaye , Florian Simatos

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-24 Fabian L. Wauthier , Michael I. Jordan

We consider two versions of stochastic population models with mutation and selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching process; here, individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of each other,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-02-19 E. Baake , R. Bialowons

Scale-free dynamics in physical and biological systems can arise from a variety of causes. Here, we explore a branching process which leads to such dynamics. We find conditions for the appearance of power laws and study quantitatively what…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 Christoph Adami , Johan Chu

Many populations, e.g. of cells, bacteria, viruses, or replicating DNA molecules, start small, from a few individuals, and grow large into a noticeable fraction of the environmental carrying capacity $K$. Typically, the elements of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 P. Chigansky , P. Jagers , F. C. Klebaner

Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-08 V. A. Vatutin V. Wachtel

Boundary-catalytic branching processes describe a broad class of natural phenomena where the population of diffusing particles grows due to their spontaneous binary branching (e.g., division, fission or splitting) on a catalytic boundary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-05 Denis S. Grebenkov , Yilin Ye

We consider branching random walks in $d$-dimensional integer lattice with time-space i.i.d. offspring distributions. When $d \ge 3$ and the fluctuation of the environment is well moderated by the random walk, we prove a central limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-06 Nobuo Yoshida

The classical model for the genealogies of a neutrally evolving population in a fixed environment is due to Kingman. Kingman's coalescent process, which produces a binary tree, universally emerges from many microscopic models in which the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-05 Ethan Levien

A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential fall-of of the density of thin-tailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-04 Erez Aghion , David A. Kessler , Eli Barkai

We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We focus…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Dariusz Buraczewski , Ewa Damek
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