Related papers: Edgeworth corrections for spot volatility estimato…
Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…
This paper compares the accuracy of tail risk forecasts with a focus on including realized skewness and kurtosis in "additive" and "multiplicative" models. Utilizing a panel of 960 US stocks, we conduct diagnostic tests, employ scoring…
Given the importance of continuous-time stochastic volatility models to describe the dynamics of interest rates, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the parametric form of the drift and diffusion functions, based on a marked empirical…
It is known that Heston's stochastic volatility model exhibits moment explosion, and that the critical moment $s_+$ can be obtained by solving (numerically) a simple equation. This yields a leading order expansion for the implied volatility…
We consider a novel use case for the Double Heston model (Christoffersen et al,, 2009), where the two Heston sub-variances have different spot/volatility correlations but the same volatility of volatility and mean reversion speed. This…
For sequences of non-lattice weakly dependent random variables, we obtain asymptotic expansions for Large Deviation Principles. These expansions, commonly referred to as strong large deviation results, are in the spirit of Edgeworth…
The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…
In this paper we study the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for arithmetic Asian options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow the Black-Scholes model with a general stochastic volatility…
Using Malliavin calculus techniques, we derive an analytical formula for the price of European options, for any model including local volatility and Poisson jump process. We show that the accuracy of the formula depends on the smoothness of…
We consider call option prices in diffusion models close to expiry, in an asymptotic regime ("moderately out of the money") that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money options and out-of-the-money fixed-strike options.…
The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…
This paper proposes a widely applicable method of approximate maximum-likelihood estimation for multivariate diffusion process from discretely sampled data. A closed-form asymptotic expansion for transition density is proposed and…
We propose leave-out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An…
In this paper, we first investigate the estimation of the empirical joint Laplace transform of volatilities of two semi-martingales within a fixed time interval [0, T] by using overlapped increments of high-frequency data. The proposed…
A simple method is proposed to estimate the instantaneous correlations between state variables in a hybrid system from the empirical correlations between observable market quantities such as spot rate, stock price and implied volatility.…
Sharp asymptotic lower bounds of the expected quadratic variation of discretization error in stochastic integration are given. The theory relies on inequalities for the kurtosis and skewness of a general random variable which are themselves…
Understanding the distributions of spectral estimators in low-rank random matrix models, also known as signal-plus-noise matrix models, is fundamentally important in various statistical learning problems, including network analysis, matrix…
First and second kind modifications of usual confidence intervals for estimating the expectation and of usual local alternative parameter choices are introduced in a way such that the asymptotic behavior of the true non-covering…