Related papers: Edgeworth corrections for spot volatility estimato…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…
We provide a simple explicit estimator for discretely observed Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, prove rigorously consistency and asymptotic normality based on the single assumption that all moments of the stationary distribution of…
This paper focuses on inhomogeneous quadratic tests, which involve the sum of a dependent non-central chi-square with a Gaussian random variable. Unfortunately, no closed-form expression is available for the statistical distribution of the…
We develop generalized approach to obtaining Edgeworth expansions for $t$-statistics of an arbitrary order using computer algebra and combinatorial algorithms. To incorporate various versions of mean-based statistics, we introduce Adjusted…
Consider a branching random walk in which the offspring distribution and the moving law both depend on an independent and identically distributed random environment indexed by the time.For the normalised counting measure of the number of…
We prove that certain asymptotic moments exist for some random distance expanding dynamical systems and Markov chains in random dynamical environment, and compute them in terms of the derivatives at the $0$ of an appropriate pressure…
We derive a nonparametric higher-order asymptotic expansion for small-time changes of conditional characteristic functions of It\^o semimartingale increments. The asymptotics setup is of joint type: both the length of the time interval of…
Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. Efron, 2014, derived a widely applicable formula for a delta method approximation to the standard…
Asymptotic expansion of a variation with anticipative weights is derived by the theory of asymptotic expansion for Skorohod integrals having a mixed normal limit. The expansion formula is expressed with the quasi-torsion, quasi-tangent and…
In this article, we study a class of lattice random variables in the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable random variable with index $\alpha \in (0,2)$ which satisfy a truncated fractional Edgeworth expansion. Our results include…
In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…
In this work, we derive an Edgeworth expansion for the Bernoulli weighted mean $\hat{\mu} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n Y_i T_i}{\sum_{i=1}^n T_i}$ in the case where $Y_1, \dots, Y_n$ are i.i.d. non semi-lattice random variables and $T_1, \dots,…
In this paper we prove an approximate formula expressed in terms of elementary functions for the implied volatility in the Heston model. The formula consists of the constant and first order terms in the large maturity expansion of the…
We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating…
Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…
We first revisit the problem of estimating the spot volatility of an It\^o semimartingale using a kernel estimator. We prove a Central Limit Theorem with optimal convergence rate for a general two-sided kernel. Next, we introduce a new…
Consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb Z$ in discrete time. Denote by $L_n(k)$ the number of particles at site $k\in\mathbb Z$ at time $n\in\mathbb N_0$. By the profile of the branching random walk (at time $n$) we mean the function…
New versions of the set-valued average value at risk for multivariate risks are introduced by generalizing the well-known certainty equivalent representation to the set-valued case. The first "regulator" version is independent from any…
Robustness of the solutions to the inflaton potential inverse problem based on the slow-roll approximation is addressed. With that aim it is introduced a measure of the difference of the outputs obtained using first and second order…