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Incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) is a common source of gene tree incongruence in multilocus analyses. A large number of methods have been developed to infer species trees in the presence of ILS. Here we provide a mathematical analysis of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-18 Sebastien Roch

Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Damian Machlanski , Spyros Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) are widely used to study trait evolution. However, many evolutionary histories involve reticulate evolutionary scenarios, such as hybridization, that violate core assumptions of these methods. In this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-30 Lydia Morley , Emma Lehmberg , Sungsik Kong

This paper presents a new approach for trees-based regression, such as simple regression tree, random forest and gradient boosting, in settings involving correlated data. We show the problems that arise when implementing standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-09 Assaf Rabinowicz , Saharon Rosset

Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Jinxiong Zhang

Given a set of species whose evolution is represented by a species tree, a gene family is a group of genes having evolved from a single ancestral gene. A gene family evolves along the branches of a species tree through various mechanisms,…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Cedric Chauve , Yann Ponty , Michael Wallner

ASTRAL is a method for reconstructing species trees after inferring a set of gene trees and is increasingly used in phylogenomic analyses. It is statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model, is scalable, and has shown…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-10-18 Siavash Mirarab

Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Myriam Tami , Marianne Clausel , Emilie Devijver , Adrien Dulac , Eric Gaussier , Stefan Janaqi , Meriam Chebre

In order to conduct a statistical analysis on a given set of phylogenetic gene trees, we often use a distance measure between two trees. In a statistical distance-based method to analyze discordance between gene trees, it is a key to decide…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-02-05 Jing Xi , Jin Xie , Ruriko Yoshida

A common approach to aggregate classification estimates in an ensemble of decision trees is to either use voting or to average the probabilities for each class. The latter takes uncertainty into account, but not the reliability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Florian Busch , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Hendrik Blockeel

Simple stochastic models for phylogenetic trees on species have been well studied. But much paleontology data concerns time series or trees on higher-order taxa, and any broad picture of relationships between extant groups requires use of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-08-28 David Aldous , Maxim Krikun , Lea Popovic

An early burst of speciation followed by a subsequent slowdown in the rate of diversification is commonly inferred from molecular phylogenies. This pattern is consistent with some verbal theory of ecological opportunity and adaptive…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-11 Matthew W. Pennell , Brice A. J. Sarver , Luke J. Harmon

In a phylogenetic tree, we often don't have information about the time a speciation event (inner node) occured. Under a neutral model for speciation, I develop fast algorithms for calculating the probability that an inner node i is the k-th…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Tanja Gernhard

Phylogenetic comparative methods are well established tools for using inter-species variation to analyse phenotypic evolution and adaptation. They are generally hampered, however, by predominantly univariate approaches and failure to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-13 Krzysztof Bartoszek

A method was developed for Bayesian inference of species phylogeny using the multi-species coalescent model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-15 Bruce Rannala , Ziheng Yang

Ancestral inference for branching processes in random environments involves determining the ancestor distribution parameters using the population sizes of descendant generations. In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for ancestral…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-29 Xiaoran Jiang , Anand N. Vidyashankar

The tree-based ensembles are known for their outstanding performance in classification and regression problems characterized by feature vectors represented by mixed-type variables from various ranges and domains. However, considering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Patryk Wielopolski , Maciej Zięba

The Yule model and the coalescent model are two neutral stochastic models for generating trees in phylogenetics and population genetics, respectively. Although these models are quite different, they lead to identical distributions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-17 Sha Zhu , James H. Degnan , Mike Steel

Forward-time models of diversification (i.e., speciation and extinction) produce phylogenetic trees that grow "vertically" as time goes by. Pruning the extinct lineages out of such trees leads to natural models for reconstructed trees…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-08-07 Amaury Lambert , Tanja Stadler

Diversification models describe the random growth of evolutionary trees, modeling the historical relationships of species through speciation and extinction events. One class of such models allows for independently changing traits, or types,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Dakota Dragomir , Elizabeth S. Allman , John A. Rhodes
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