Related papers: COVID-19 infectivity profile correction

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…

To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

While understanding of periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking. The complexity of Covid-19 recurrent waves is…

A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…

The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…

Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50…

The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for governments and healthcare systems worldwide, highlighting the critical importance of understanding the factors that contribute to virus transmission. This study aimed to…

The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with…

Epidemiology and Public Health have increasingly relied on structured and unstructured data, collected inside and outside of typical health systems, to study, identify, and mitigate diseases at the population level. Focusing on infectious…

Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…

In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to forecast the range of increase in COVID-19 infected cases in future days and we present a novel method to compute equidimensional representations of multivariate time series and…

The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…

We develop a spatially dependent generalisation to the Wells-Riley model and its extensions applied to COVID-19, that determines the infection risk due to airborne transmission of viruses. We assume that the concentration of infectious…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

When the novel coronavirus disease SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) was officially declared a pandemic by the WHO in March 2020, the scientific community had already braced up in the effort of making sense of the fast-growing wealth of data gathered by…

COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…