Related papers: COVID-19 infectivity profile correction
Previous research has demonstrated that various properties of infectious diseases can be inferred from online search behaviour. In this work we use time series of online search query frequencies to gain insights about the prevalence of…
The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and…
Objective: To develop machine learning models that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases per day given the last 14 days of environmental and mobility data. Approach: COVID-19 data from four counties around Toronto, Ontario, were used.…
COVID-19 is a new pathogen that first appeared in the human population at the end of 2019, and it can lead to novel variants of pneumonia after infection. COVID-19 is a rapidly spreading infectious disease that infects humans faster.…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
A mathematical model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of a respiratory infection such as COVID-19, is presented. The model employs basic concepts from fluid dynamics and incorporates the known scope of factors involved in…
We conduct a unique, Amazon MTurk-based global experiment to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. The scientific basis for our inquiry is the…
We consider the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which is characterized by two distinct features. One is the existence of asymptomatic carriers which is a hidden variable in the problem. The other is the issue of latency which means that…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country,…
The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…
The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of people worldwide prompted the implementation of a range of preventive measures at local, national, and international levels. Early in the outbreak, before the vaccine became…
In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
Within the context that Greece promises a success story in the fight against the disease, this paper proposes a novel method to study the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve in relation to the anti-COVID-19 policies applied to…
In this work, we have described the mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission using fractional differential equations. The mathematical modeling of infectious disease goes back to the 1760s when the famous mathematician Daniel…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…