Related papers: COVID-19 infectivity profile correction
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
As infected and vaccinated population increases, some countries decided not to impose non-pharmaceutical intervention measures anymore and to coexist with COVID-19. However, we do not have a comprehensive understanding of its consequence ,…
A timely understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern and development trend of COVID-19 is critical for timely prevention and control. However, the under-reporting of cases is widespread in fields associated with public health. It is also…
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, there have been many scientific publications studying the COVID-19. The purpose of this study is to identify the research trend, collaboration pattern, most influential elements, etc. from scientific…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…
Qatar has undergone distinct waves of COVID-19 infections, compounded by the emergence of variants, posing additional complexities. This research uniquely delves into the varied efficacy of existing vaccines and the pivotal role of…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…
This study develops a framework for quantification of the impact of changes in population mobility due to social distancing on the COVID-19 infection growth rate. Using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model we…
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its Member States have been heavily relying on staying at home and lock down measures to control the spread of the virus. In the last months, various…
This paper conducts a systematic statistical analysis of the characteristics of the geographical empirical distributions for the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths at county, city, and state levels over…
In this study, we use US county-level COVID-19 case data from January 21-March 25, 2020 to study the exponential behavior of case growth at the metropolitan scale. In particular, we assume that all localized outbreaks are in an early stage…
Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, it is of interest to understand how the infections spread as the combined result of measures taken by central planners (governments) and individual behavior. In this work, the spread of Covid-19 is…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, such as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a curative treatment or vaccine against COVID-19, have…