Related papers: A Bayesian decision support system for counteracti…

We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two firms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent firms' potential anti-competitive behaviour and its effect on the market. The Antitrust Authority's…

Because of the threat of advanced multi-step attacks, it is often difficult for security operators to completely cover all vulnerabilities when deploying remediations. Deploying sensors to monitor attacks exploiting residual vulnerabilities…

Terrorist attacks not only harm citizens but also shift their attention, which has long-lasting impacts on public opinion and government policies. Yet measuring the changes in public attention beyond media coverage has been methodologically…

Solving cybersecurity issues requires a holistic understanding of components, factors, structures and their interactions in cyberspace, but conventional modeling approaches view the field of cybersecurity by their boundaries so that we are…

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…

To make decisions we are guided by the evidence we collect, as well as the opinions of friends and neighbors. How do we integrate our private beliefs with information we obtain from our social network? To understand the strategies humans…

Today's software systems are highly distributed and interconnected, and they increasingly rely on communication to achieve their goals; due to their societal importance, security and trustworthiness are crucial aspects for the correctness…

Temporal networks are a fundamental and flexible way of describing the activities, relationships, and evolution of any complex system. Global terrorism is one of the biggest concerns of recent times. It is also an example of a temporal…

Complex systems show the capacity to aggregate information and to display coordinated activity. In the case of social systems the interaction of different individuals leads to the emergence of norms, trends in political positions, opinions,…

This paper presents a multidisciplinary approach to analyzing data from Telegram for early warning information regarding cyber threats. With the proliferation of hacktivist groups utilizing Telegram to disseminate information regarding…

We develop a network of Bayesian agents that collectively model the mental states of teammates from the observed communication. Using a generative computational approach to cognition, we make two contributions. First, we show that our agent…

Subgroup analysis is a frequently used tool for evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effect and heterogeneity in treatment harm across observed baseline patient characteristics. While treatment efficacy and adverse event measures are often…

Security challenges accompany the efficiency. The pervasive integration of information and communications technologies (ICTs) makes cyber-physical systems vulnerable to targeted attacks that are deceptive, persistent, adaptive and…

The study of criminal networks using traces from heterogeneous communication media is acquiring increasing importance in nowadays society. The usage of communication media such as phone calls and online social networks leaves digital traces…

Technological systems increasingly mediate human information exchange, spanning interactions among humans as well as between humans and artificial agents. The unprecedented scale and reliance on information disseminated through these…

If cyber incidents are predicted a reasonable amount of time before they occur, defensive actions to prevent their destructive effects could be planned. Unfortunately, most of the time we do not have enough observables of the malicious…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework for distributed inference of a group of agents interacting over a social network by sequentially communicating and updating beliefs about the unknown state of the world through…

Critical infrastructure increasingly relies on interconnected cyber-physical systems whose security incidents can escalate rapidly into safety and operational failures. Existing decision-support approaches struggle to support real-time…

Current decision support systems address domains that are heterogeneous in nature and becoming progressively larger. Such systems often require the input of expert judgement about a variety of different fields and an intensive computational…

Bayesian Persuasion is proposed as a tool for social media platforms to combat the spread of misinformation. Since platforms can use machine learning to predict the popularity and misinformation features of to-be-shared posts, and users are…