Related papers: A Bayesian decision support system for counteracti…
The advancement in technology has brought a new era in terrorism where Online Social Networks have become a major platform of communication with wide range of usage from message channeling to propaganda and recruitment of new followers in…
In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example, the number of users who will install a software update, the number of…
Serious crime modelling typically needs to be undertaken securely behind a firewall where police knowledge and capabilities can remain undisclosed. Data informing an ongoing incident is often sparse, with a large proportion of relevant data…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being used to augment and automate cyber operations, altering the scale, speed, and accessibility of malicious activity. These shifts raise urgent questions about when AI systems introduce…
Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our action planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typically unobservable, and must be inferred…
Emergent collective group processes and capabilities have been studied through analysis of transactive memory, measures of group task performance, and group intelligence, among others. In their approach to collective behaviors, these…
We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…
Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often…
This review explores the academic and policy literature in the context of everyday cyber security in organisations. In so doing, it identifies four behavioural sets that influences how people practice cyber security. These are compliance…
Normative decision theory proves inadequate for modeling human responses to the social-engineering campaigns of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks. Behavioral decision theory fares better, but still falls short of capturing…
We propose a Bayesian network model to make inferences and predictions about cardiovascular risk. Both the structure and the probability tables in the underlying model are built using a large dataset collected in Spain from annual work…
Cyber security threats to the payment and banking system have become a worldwide menace. The phenomenon has forced financial institutions to take risks as part of their business model. Hence, deliberate investment in sophisticated…
In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a…
The challenge of decision-making under uncertainty in information security has become increasingly important, given the unpredictable probabilities and effects of events in the ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Cyber threat intelligence…
Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which…
Crisis management is a complex problem raised by the scientific community currently. Decision support systems are a suitable solution for such issues, they are indeed able to help emergency managers to prevent and to manage crisis in…
This paper addresses a method to analyze the covert social network foundation hidden behind the terrorism disaster. It is to solve a node discovery problem, which means to discover a node, which functions relevantly in a social network, but…
The rapid expansion of cyberspace has greatly facilitated the strategic shift of traditional crimes to online platforms. This has included malicious actors, such as extremist organisations, making use of online networks to disseminate…
Collective intelligence, which aggregates the shared information from large crowds, is often negatively impacted by unreliable information sources with the low quality data. This becomes a barrier to the effective use of collective…
Actor-event data are common in sociological settings, whereby one registers the pattern of attendance of a group of social actors to a number of events. We focus on 79 members of the Noordin Top terrorist network, who were monitored…