Related papers: A Bayesian decision support system for counteracti…
This paper addresses the question whether model knowledge can guide a defender to appropriate decisions, or not, when an attacker intrudes into control systems. The model-based defense scheme considered in this study, namely Bayesian…
Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…
Society faces a fundamental global problem of understanding which individuals are currently developing strong support for some extremist entity such as ISIS (Islamic State) -- even if they never end up doing anything in the real world. The…
Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network analysis and NK-Boolean fitness landscapes. The following paper explores various aspects of terrorist networks which can be illuminated through…
AI and humans bring complementary skills to group deliberations. Modeling this group decision making is especially challenging when the deliberations include an element of risk and an exploration-exploitation process of appraising the…
Cyber-security analysts face an increasingly large number of alerts received on any given day. This is mainly due to the low precision of many existing methods to detect threats, producing a substantial number of false positives. Usually,…
Our decision-making processes are becoming more data driven, based on data from multiple sources, of different types, processed by a variety of technologies. As technology becomes more relevant for decision processes, the more likely they…
Law-enforcement investigations aimed at preventing attacks by violent extremists have become increasingly important for public safety. The problem is exacerbated by the massive data volumes that need to be scanned to identify complex…
Activity profiles of terrorist groups show frequent spurts and downfalls corresponding to changes in the underlying organizational dynamics. In particular, it is of interest in understanding changes in attributes such as…
The Internet and social media have fueled enormous interest in social network analysis. New tools continue to be developed and used to analyse our personal connections, with particular emphasis on detecting communities or identifying key…
Money laundering is a major global problem, enabling criminal organisations to hide their ill-gotten gains and to finance further operations. Prevention of money laundering is seen as a high priority by many governments, however detection…
Crime is pervasive into modern societies, although with different levels of diffusion across regions. Its dynamics are dependent on various socio-economic factors that make the overall picture particularly complex. While several theories…
The investigation of the terrorist attack is a time-critical task. The investigators have a limited time window to diagnose the organizational background of the terrorists, to run down and arrest the wire-pullers, and to take an action to…
Recognizing, assessing, countering, and mitigating the biases of different nature from heterogeneous sources is a critical problem in designing a cognitive Decision Support System (DSS). An example of such a system is a cognitive…
Certain crimes are hardly committed by individuals but carefully organised by group of associates and affiliates loosely connected to each other with a single or small group of individuals coordinating the overall actions. A common starting…
The relevance of the topic is dictated by the fact that in recent decades, the threat to international security emanating from terrorism has increased many times. Terrorist organizations have become full-fledged subjects of politics on a…
Similar to what happens between humans in the real world, in open multi-agent systems distributed over the Internet, such as online social networks or wiki technologies, agents often form coalitions by agreeing to act as a whole in order to…
Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…
Cyber threats affect all kinds of organisations. Risk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organisations to deal with the cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritise the defence of their assets and…
The spread of radical ideologies is a key to fanaticism, recruitment and terrorist activities. Hence, preventing such activities requires predictive models capable of identifying areas and agents before occurrence of catastrophic terrorist…