Related papers: A Bayesian decision support system for counteracti…
Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each…
Terrorism has become one of the most tedious problems to deal with and a prominent threat to mankind. To enhance counter-terrorism, several research works are developing efficient and precise systems, data mining is not an exception.…
Fraud and terrorism have a close connect in terms of the processes that enables and promote them. In the era of Internet, its various services that include Web, e-mail, social networks, blogs, instant messaging, chats, etc. are used in…
Terrorist network is a paradigms to understand the terrorism. The terrorist involves a lot of people, and among them are involved as perpetrators, but on the contrary it is very difficult to know who they are caused by lack of information.…
Cybersecurity risk analysis plays an essential role in supporting organizations make effective decision about how to manage and control cybersecurity risk. Cybersecurity risk is a function of the interplay between the defender, i.e., the…
Capturing dynamics of operational similarity among terrorist groups is critical to provide actionable insights for counter-terrorism and intelligence monitoring. Yet, in spite of its theoretical and practical relevance, research addressing…
Many successful terrorist groups operate across international borders where different countries host different stages of terrorist operations. Often the recruits for the group come from one country or countries, while the targets of the…
Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a…
Terrorism instills fear in the minds of people and takes away the freedom of individuals to act as they will. Terrorism has turned out to be an international menace today. Here, we study the terrorist attack incidents which occurred in the…
The underlying reasons behind modern terrorism are seemingly complex and intangible. Despite diverse causal mechanisms, research has shown that there exists general statistical patterns at the global scale that can shed light on human…
Behavioural analytics provides insights into individual and crowd behaviour, enabling analysis of what previously happened and predictions for how people may be likely to act in the future. In defence and security, this analysis allows…
Terrorist attacks all across the world have become a major source of concern for almost all national governments. The United States Department of State's Bureau of Counter-Terrorism, maintains a list of 66 terrorist organizations spanning…
The rapid spread of radical ideologies in recent years has led to a worldwide string of terrorist attacks. Understanding how extremist tendencies germinate, develop, and drive individuals to action is important from a cultural standpoint,…
We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…
We develop a Bayesian modeling framework to address a pressing real-life problem faced by the police in tackling insurgent gangs. Unlike criminals associated with common crimes such as robbery, theft or street crime, insurgent gangs are…
Given the extreme heterogeneity of actors and groups participating in terrorist actions, investigating and assessing their characteristics can be important to extract relevant information and enhance the knowledge on their behaviors. The…
We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…
A novel unified Bayesian framework for network detection is developed, under which a detection algorithm is derived based on random walks on graphs. The algorithm detects threat networks using partial observations of their activity, and is…
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…