Related papers: Did the Indian lockdown avert deaths?

We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known…

The difference in COVID 19 death rates across political regimes has caught a lot of attention. The "efficient autocracy" view suggests that autocracies may be more efficient at putting in place policies that contain COVID 19 spread. On the…

This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…

One of the main contributors to air pollution is particulate matter (PMxy), which causes several COVID-19 related diseases such as respiratory problems and cardiovascular disorders. Therefore, the spatial and temporal trend analysis of…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…

Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…

A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of…

We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…

We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also…

The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…

The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…

Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates…

We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 in India after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan city, China. We estimate the transmission rate of the initial infecting individuals of COVID-19 in India by using the officially reported…

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…

As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy helped. And if it did,…

In recent years, numerous advances have been made in understanding how epidemic dynamics is affected by changes in individual behaviours. We propose an SIS-based compartmental model to tackle the simultaneous and coupled evolution of an…

Epidemiological models are the mathematical models that capture the dynamics of epidemics. The spread of the virus has two routes - exogenous and endogenous. The exogenous spread is from outside the population under study, and endogenous…

Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…

The SIR evolutionary model predicts too sharp a decrease of the fractions of people infected with COVID-19 in France after the start of the national lockdown, compared to what is observed. I fit the daily hospital data: arrivals in regular…

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that…