Related papers: Did the Indian lockdown avert deaths?

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population…

This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…

In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different…

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into…

Measures to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic require a mix of logistic, political and social capacity. Depending on the country, different approaches to increase hospitalization capacity or to properly apply lock-downs are…

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of…

It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…

Bayesian analysis of publicly available time series of cases and fatalities in different geographical regions of India during April 2020 is reported. It is found that the initial apparent rapid growthin infections could be partly due to…

Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, the last couple of years have been drastic in terms of human behavioral patterns. People were forced to stay at home for a very long duration because of the strict lockdown measures imposed by governments…

At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…

Infectious diseases that spread silently through asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infections represent a challenge for policy makers. A traditional way of achieving isolation of silent infectors from the community is through forward contact…

The global pandemic due to the outbreak of COVID-19 ravages the whole world for more than two years in which all the countries are suffering a lot since December 2019. In order to control this ongoing waves of epidemiological infections,…

We propose an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers Symptomatic, Purely Asymptomatic, and Exposed are considered with different rates of transmission of infection that are taken dependent on the lockdown and…

Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by…