Related papers: A new relationship between Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi gra…

A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…

In dimensions $d\geq 4$, by choosing a suitable scaling parameter, we show that the rescaled spatial SIR epidemic process converges to a super-Brownian motion with drift, thus complementing the previous results by Lalley (Probab. Theory…

We consider the rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph in the Brownian regime in the critical window. Aldous studied the weights of the components, and showed that this ordered sequence converges in the $\ell^2$-topology to the ordered…

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…

We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…

We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomized Reed--Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asymptotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of…

In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…

We consider a variant of the classical Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, where components with surplus are slowed down to prevent the apparition of complex components. The sizes of the components of this process undergo a similar phase…

We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…

We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…

We investigate the SIR epidemic on a dynamic inhomogeneous Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, in which vertices are of one of $k$ types and in which edges appear and disappear independently of each other. We establish a functional law of large…

We consider an epidemic change-point detection in a large class of causal time series models, including among other processes, AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH. A test statistic based on the Gaussian quasi-maximum…

We study the SIR epidemic model with infections carried by $k$ particles making independent random walks on a random regular graph. Here we assume $k\leq n^{\epsilon}$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the random graph, and $\epsilon$…

We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

We consider the Erdos-Renyi random graph G(n,p) inside the critical window, that is when p=1/n+ lambda*n^{-4/3}, for some fixed lambda in R. Then, as a metric space with the graph distance rescaled by n^{-1/3}, the sequence of connected…

Growing literatures on epidemic and rumor dynamics show that infection and information coevolve. We present a unified framework for modeling the spread of infection and information: a general class of interaction-driven fluid-limit models…

Consider a critical Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graph: $n$ is the number of vertices, each one of the $\binom{n}{2}$ possible edges is kept in the graph independently from the others with probability $n^{-1}+\lambda n^{-4/3}$, $\lambda$ being a…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…