English

Epidemic change-point detection in general causal time series

Statistics Theory 2021-05-31 v1 Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider an epidemic change-point detection in a large class of causal time series models, including among other processes, AR(\infty), ARCH(\infty), TARCH(\infty), ARMA-GARCH. A test statistic based on the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter is proposed. It is shown that, under the null hypothesis of no change, the test statistic converges to a distribution obtained from a difference of two Brownian bridge and diverges to infinity under the epidemic alternative. Numerical results for simulation and real data example are provided.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2105.13836,
  title  = {Epidemic change-point detection in general causal time series},
  author = {Mamadou Lamine Diop and William Kengne},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.13836},
  year   = {2021}
}

Comments

arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2103.13336

R2 v1 2026-06-24T02:34:22.698Z