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Containment, the key strategy in quickly halting an epidemic, requires rapid identification and quarantine of the infected individuals, determination of whom they have had close contact with in the previous days and weeks, and…
Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…
We proposed a Monte-Carlo method to estimate temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets of all cases. Province-level analysis demonstrated the huge success of Chinese control measures on COVID-19, that…
We outline a contact-tracing strategy based on proximity sensing using mobile devices. We discuss what an ideal system should look like and what it can do. We show that, when adopted sufficiently broadly, such a contact-tracing strategy can…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread rapidly across the world, leading to enormous amounts of human death and economic loss. Until definitive preventive or curative measures are developed, policies regarding testing,…
At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…
The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
We show that the basic reproduction number of an SIS patch model with standard incidence is either strictly decreasing and strictly convex with respect to the diffusion coefficient of infected subpopulation if the patch reproduction numbers…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and quarantine of close contacts - often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy - is one of the cornerstone measures of…
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread…
Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing, contact tracing, and vaccination. However, combining these measures into an efficient holistic pandemic…
Epidemiology and Public Health have increasingly relied on structured and unstructured data, collected inside and outside of typical health systems, to study, identify, and mitigate diseases at the population level. Focusing on infectious…
India is one of the worst affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. We studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analyzed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing within the stochastic…