Related papers: Optimal Responses to an Infectious Disease
Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing…
We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…
The most frequent infectious diseases in humans - and those with the highest potential for rapid pandemic spread - are usually transmitted via droplets during close proximity interactions (CPIs). Despite the importance of this transmission…
Frequent emergence of communicable diseases has been a major concern worldwide. Lack of sufficient resources to mitigate the disease-burden makes the situation even more challenging for lower-income countries. Hence, strategy development…
An epidemic model with births and deaths is considered on a two dimensional LxL lattice. Each individual can have global infective contacts according to the standard SIR model rules or local infective contacts with its nearest neighbors. We…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective measures to contain a pandemic. Yet, such control measures commonly have a negative effect on the economy. Here, we propose a macro-level approach to support resolving this…
Motivated by the swift global transmission of infectious diseases, we present a comprehensive framework for network-based epidemic control. Our aim is to curb epidemics using two different approaches. In the first approach, we introduce an…
Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…
In this paper, we propose a two-group SIR epidemic model to simulate the outcome of stay-at-home policy and wearing face masks during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in the United States. Based on our proposed model, we further use the…
We consider a SIR model with vaccination strategy on a sparse configuration model random graph. We show the convergence of the system when the number of nodes grows and characterize the scaling limits. Then, we prove the existence of…
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is a widely used model for the spread of information and infectious diseases, particularly non-immunizing ones, on a graph. Given a highly contagious disease, a natural question is how to…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
We analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences in immune systems.…
This paper presents a discrete time probabilistic dynamic for simulating a contact-based epidemic spreading based on discrete time Markov chain process, in particular the attention is addressed to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)…
In this paper, we study an optimal control problem of a communicable disease in a prison population. In order to control the spread of the disease inside a prison, we consider an active case-finding strategy, consisting on screening a…
In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to…
This paper considers a simple model where a social planner can influence the spread-intensity of an infection wave, and, consequently, also the economic activity and population health, through a single parameter. Population health is…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…