Related papers: Optimal Responses to an Infectious Disease
We devise a theoretical model for the optimal dynamical control of an infectious disease whose diffusion is described by the SVIR compartmental model. The control is realized through implementing social rules to reduce the disease's spread,…
This paper considers the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with an underlying network structure among subpopulations and focuses on the effect of social distancing to regulate the epidemic level. We demonstrate that if…
We propose a network behavioral-feedback Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model in which the interaction matrix describing the infection rates across subpopulations depends in feedback on the current epidemic state. This model…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
When the body gets infected by a pathogen the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery the host might become susceptible again. Exposure to the pathogen in the environment…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
Several non-pharmaceutical interventions have been proposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the large scale, these empirical solutions, often associated with extended and complete lockdowns, attempt to minimize the costs…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be…
We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is…
Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
The spread of COVID-19 has been thwarted in most countries through non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, the most effective measures in this direction have been the stay-at-home and closure strategies of businesses and schools.…
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with identical infectivity, where each node is assigned with the same capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step, is presented. We found that on scale-free networks,…
The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
SIRS epidemic models assume that individual immunity (from infection and vaccination) wanes in one big leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that's…
SIR models, also with age structure, can be used to describe the evolution of an infective disease. A vaccination campaign influences this dynamics immunizing part of the susceptible individuals, essentially turning them into recovered…