Related papers: Epidemic models with geography
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
This article introduces new methods for inference with count data registered on a set of aggregation units. Such data are omnipresent in epidemiology due to confidentiality issues: it is much more common to know the county in which an…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…
In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…
Stochastic modeling of disease dynamics has had a long tradition. Among the first epidemic models including a spatial structure in the form of local interactions is the contact process. In this article we investigate two extensions of the…
In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null…
Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…