Related papers: Epidemic models with geography
The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
One long-standing question in epidemiological research is how best to allocate limited amounts of vaccine or similar preventative measures in order to minimize the severity of an epidemic. Much of the literature on the problem of vaccine…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
Motivated by our intention to use SIR-type epidemiological models in the context of dynamic networks as provided by large-scale highly interacting inhomogeneous human crowds, we investigate in this framework possibilities to reduce the…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…
Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over the last years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with…
Models with several levels of mixing (households, workplaces), as well as various corresponding formulations for R0, have been proposed in the literature. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of the distribution of the…
World models have emerged as a unifying paradigm for learning latent dynamics, simulating counterfactual futures, and supporting planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that computational epidemiology is a natural and…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic model that describes the probability of…
The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…
We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
We develop a multi-patch and multi-group model that captures the dynamics of an infectious disease when the host is structured into an arbitrary number of groups and interacts into an arbitrary number of patches where the infection takes…