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Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level.…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-27 Anastasia Ushakova , Slava J. Mikhaylov

We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K<N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-15 Chenguang Liu

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Zoé Agathe-Nerine

Human behavior is a continuous stochastic spatio-temporal process which is governed by semantic actions and affordances as well as latent factors. Therefore, video-based human activity modeling is concerned with a number of tasks such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-03-15 Judith Bütepage , Hedvig Kjellström , Danica Kragic

Human activity discovery aims to cluster the activities performed by humans without any prior information on what defines each activity. Most methods presented in human activity recognition are supervised, where there are labeled inputs to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Parham Hadikhani , Daphne Teck Ching Lai , Wee-Hong Ong

The emergent dynamics of complex systems often arise from the internal dynamical interactions among different elements and hence is to be modeled using multiple variables that represent the different dynamical processes. When such systems…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-11-05 Shivam Kumar , R. Misra , G. Ambika

As a person learns a new skill, distinct synapses, brain regions, and circuits are engaged and change over time. In this paper, we develop methods to examine patterns of correlated activity across a large set of brain regions. Our goal is…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2013-10-31 Danielle S. Bassett , Nicholas F. Wymbs , M. Puck Rombach , Mason A. Porter , Peter J. Mucha , Scott T. Grafton

From collective hunting to environmental problems, social dilemmas are pervasive in human societies. Prior research has documented highly heterogeneous behavioral patterns in such settings. However, how this heterogeneity emerges and how it…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-28 Kai Otsubo , Yuta Kido , Ryutaro Mori

Health risks from cigarette smoking -- the leading cause of preventable death in the United States -- can be substantially reduced by quitting. Although most smokers are motivated to quit, the majority of quit attempts fail. A number of…

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

Modeling human dynamics responsible for the formation and evolution of the so-called social networks - structures comprised of individuals or organizations and indicating connectivities existing in a community - is a topic recently…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Victor V. Kryssanov , Frank J. Rinaldo , Evgeny L. Kuleshov , Hitoshi Ogawa

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

Human behavior is often assumed to be hierarchically structured, made up of abstract actions that can be decomposed into concrete actions. However, behavior is typically measured as a sequence of actions, which makes it difficult to infer…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Carlos G. Correa , Sophia Sanborn , Mark K. Ho , Frederick Callaway , Nathaniel D. Daw , Thomas L. Griffiths

The increasing availability of electronic communication data, such as that arising from e-mail exchange, presents social and information scientists with new possibilities for characterizing individual behavior and, by extension, identifying…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-05-07 R. Dean Malmgren , Jake M. Hofman , Luis A. N. Amaral , Duncan J. Watts

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Modeling biological rhythms helps understand the complex principles behind the physical and psychological abnormalities of human bodies, to plan life schedules, and avoid persisting fatigue and mood and sleep alterations due to the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-15 Runze Yan , Afsaneh Doryab

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke