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The dynamics of human mobility characterizes the trajectories humans follow during their daily activities and is the foundation of processes from epidemic spreading to traffic prediction and information recommendation. In this paper, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-16 Zhi-Dan Zhao , Shi-Min Cai , Yang Lu

We consider the problem of how to optimize multi-stage campaigning over social networks. The dynamic programming framework is employed to balance the high present reward and large penalty on low future outcome in the presence of extensive…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-06-14 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Xiaojing Ye , Sahar Harati , Le Song , Hongyuan Zha

This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

Recent studies have shown that novel collective behaviors emerge in complex systems due to higher-order interactions. However, the way in which the structural correlations of these interactions shape such behaviors remains a significant gap…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-02 Kaloyan Danovski , Sandro Meloni , Michele Starnini

We study a dynamical system modeling the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in which each individual's behavioral intention evolves continuously under an ODE driven by internal attitudes, perceived social norms, and perceived behavioral…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Rishi Dadlani , John S. McAlister , Tahra L. Eissa , Nina H. Fefferman

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

The research on human activity recognition has provided novel solutions to many applications like healthcare, sports, and user profiling. Considering the complex nature of human activities, it is still challenging even after effective and…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Ranjit Kolkar , Geetha V

Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPPs) arise naturally in medical, social, commercial, and financial domains. However, existing Transformer-based methods mostly inject temporal information only via positional encodings, relying on shared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Xinzi Tan , Kejian Zhang , Junhan Yu , Doudou Zhou

Inherent differences in behaviour of individual animal movement can introduce bias into estimates of population parameters derived from mark-recapture data. Additionally, quantifying individual heterogeneity is of considerable interest in…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-24 Jessica H Ford , Toby A Patterson , Mark V Bravington

Automatically reasoning about future human behaviors is a difficult problem but has significant practical applications to assistive systems. Part of this difficulty stems from learning systems' inability to represent all kinds of behaviors.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-07 Jiaqi Guan , Ye Yuan , Kris M. Kitani , Nicholas Rhinehart

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

The ever increasing adoption of mobile technologies and ubiquitous services allows to sense human behavior at unprecedented levels of details and scale. Wearable sensors are opening up a new window on human mobility and proximity at the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-15 Alain Barrat , Ciro Cattuto

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

Human behavior modeling is important for the design and implementation of human-automation interactive control systems. In this context, human behavior refers to a human's control input to systems. We propose a novel method for human…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-24 Sooyung Byeon , Dawei Sun , Inseok Hwang

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

In many areas of the brain, neural spiking activity covaries with features of the external world, such as sensory stimuli or an animal's movement. Experimental findings suggest that the variability of neural activity changes over time and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-11 Ganchao Wei , Ian H. Stevenson

Modeling event patterns is a central task in a wide range of disciplines. In applications such as studying human activity patterns, events often arrive clustered with sporadic and long periods of inactivity. Such heterogeneity in event…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-03 Jingfei Zhang , Biao Cai , Xuening Zhu , Hansheng Wang , Ganggang Xu , Yongtao Guan

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 R. S. Karim , R. J. A. Laeven , M , M. Mandjes