Related papers: Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A V…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
Wave attenuation by ice floes is an important parameter for modelling the Arctic Oceans. At present, attenuation coefficients are extracted from linear models as a function of the incident wave period and floe thickness. Recent explorations…
We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…
The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a…
Drought has become a critical global threat with significant societal impact. Existing drought monitoring solutions primarily focus on assessing drought severity using quantitative measurements, overlooking the diverse societal impact of…
Soft actor-critic (SAC) in reinforcement learning is expected to be one of the next-generation robot control schemes. Its ability to maximize policy entropy would make a robotic controller robust to noise and perturbation, which is useful…
Sea ice motions play an important role in the polar climate system by transporting pollutants, heat, water and salt as well as changing the ice cover. Numerous physics-based models have been constructed to represent the sea ice dynamical…
Subpolar frontal zones are characterized by energetic storms, intense seasonal cycles, and close connectivity with surrounding continental shelf topography. At the same time, predicting the ocean state depends on appropriate partition of…
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we…
It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature for the past 400,000 years (Antarctic ice cores data) are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth…
Agentic AI workflows (systems that autonomously plan and act) are becoming widespread, yet their task success rate on complex tasks remains low. A promising solution is inference-time alignment, which uses extra compute at test time to…
We analyze the spatial variation in the response of the surface geomagnetic field (or the equivalent ionospheric current) to variations in the solar wind. Specifically, we regress a reanalysis of surface external and induced magnetic field…
It is important to understand how the emissions of different regions, sectors, or climate forcers play a role on pathways toward the Paris Agreement temperature targets. There are however methodological challenges for attributing individual…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a leading mode of atmospheric variability, affecting the North Atlantic Ocean on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The NAO changes the atmospheric forcing at the ocean's surface, including…
Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly…
This article is an attempt to elucidate the effect of a slowly varying refractive index on the temperature in a stratified atmosphere, with a particular focus on greenhouse gases such as CO2. It validates an iterative method for the vector…
Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea-ice in the absence of other…
Accurately forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Arctic is critical to global ecosystem health and navigation safety. However, current methods still is confronted with two challenges: 1) these methods rarely explore the long-term…