Related papers: Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A V…
Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate system, significantly influencing polar ecological stability and human activities in coastal regions. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have facilitated the…
Electric failures are a problem for customers and grid operators. Identifying causes and localizing the source of failures in the grid is critical. Here, we focus on a specific power grid in the Arctic region of North Norway. First, we…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Long memory and circulation patterns are potential sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Here, we infer one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic models of daily temperature which capture both long memory and external driving by the…
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential components of the global hydrological cycle, with profound implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Yet, the statistical organization and underlying physical…
Damage functions in integrated assessment models (IAMs) map changes in climate to economic impacts and form the basis for most of estimates of the social cost of carbon. Implicit in these functions lies an unwarranted assumption that…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
The recommender systems have long been investigated in the literature. Recently, users' implicit feedback like `click' or `browse' are considered to be able to enhance the recommendation performance. Therefore, a number of attempts have…
Predicting changes in sea ice cover is critical for shipping, ecosystem monitoring, and climate modeling. Current sea ice models, however, predict more ice than is observed in the Arctic, and less in the Antarctic. Improving the fit of…
In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent…
In this article, we considered the problem of sea ice cover is melting. Considering the `satellite passive microwave remote sensing data' as functional data, we studied daily observation of sea ice cover of each year as a smooth continuous…
Data assimilation is often viewed as a framework for correcting short-term error growth in dynamical climate model forecasts. When viewed on the time scales of climate however, these short-term corrections, or analysis increments, can…
The Arctic sea ice represents an important energy reservoir for the climate of the northern hemisphere. The shrinking of the polar ice in the past decades decreases the stored energy and raises serious concerns about future climate…
The theory of causal emergence (CE) with effective information (EI) posits that complex systems can exhibit CE, where macro-dynamics show stronger causal effects than micro-dynamics. A key challenge of this theory is its dependence on…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…