Related papers: Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A V…

Sea ice plays an important role in stabilising the Earth system. Yet, representing its dynamics remains a major challenge for models, as the underlying processes are scale-invariant and highly anisotropic. This poses a dilemma:…

Large scale organization in ensembles of events of atmospheric convection can be generated by the combined effect of forcing and of the interaction between the raising plumes and the environment. Here the "large scale" refers to the space…

Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…

Wave-sea ice interactions shape the transition zone between open ocean and pack ice in the polar regions. Most theoretical paradigms, implemented in coupled wave-sea ice models, predict exponential decay of the wave energy but some recent…

We present a novel approach for data-driven modeling of the time-domain induced polarization (IP) phenomenon using variational autoencoders (VAE). VAEs are Bayesian neural networks that aim to learn a latent statistical distribution to…

Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

The ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic ice sheet determine the rate of ice-discharge into the surrounding oceans. The geometry of ice shelves, and hence their buttressing strength, is determined by ice flow as well as by the local…

Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in northern Asia, Europe and North America have been found to cool…

There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…

Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…

Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…

In time-series forecasting, future target values may be affected by both intrinsic and extrinsic effects. When forecasting blood glucose, for example, intrinsic effects can be inferred from the history of the target signal alone…

We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the…

Recent work in cognitive reasoning and computer vision has engendered an increasing popularity for the Violation-of-Expectation (VoE) paradigm in synthetic datasets. Inspired by work in infant psychology, researchers have started evaluating…

Accurate real-time forecasting of cryogenic tank behavior is essential for the safe and efficient operation of propulsion and storage systems in future deep-space missions. While cryogenic fluid management (CFM) systems increasingly require…

Inelastic scattering techniques provide a powerful approach to studying electron and nuclear dynamics, via reconstruction of a propagator that quantifies the time evolution of a system. There is now growing interest in applying such methods…

In this paper we test for Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VARs) to disentangle and interpret the complex causal chains linking radiative forcings and global temperatures. By allowing for high…

The spin Seebeck effect (SSE) is sensitive to thermally driven magnetic excitations in magnetic insulators. Vanadium dioxide in its insulating low temperature phase is expected to lack magnetic degrees of freedom, as vanadium atoms are…