Related papers: Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A V…
Sea-Ice drift affects various global processes including the air-sea-ice energy system, numerical ocean modelling, and maritime activity in the polar regions. Drift has been investigated via various technologies ranging from satellite based…
The importance of snow cover and ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere was recognized by various authors leading to a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. In fact, the retreat of Arctic sea ice is accompanied by enhanced…
Arctic sea ice is rapidly retreating due to global warming, and emerging evidence suggests that the rate of decline may have been underestimated. A key factor contributing to this underestimation is the coarse resolution of current climate…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The accurate estimation of Arctic snow depth remains a critical time-varying inverse problem due to the scarcity in associated sea ice parameters. Existing process-based and data-driven models are either highly sensitive to sparse data or…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an…
Stokes variational inequalities arise in the formulation of glaciological problems involving contact. We consider the problem of a two-dimensional marine ice sheet with a grounding line, although the analysis presented here is extendable to…
We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…
Forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice velocity (SIV) in the Arctic Ocean is of great significance as the Arctic environment has been changed by the recent warming climate. Given that physical sea ice models require high…
Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…
We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is…
Climate driven reductions in Arctic sea ice have renewed interest in trans Arctic shipping, but adoption remains limited by basic questions of route feasibility, safety and excess distance. Existing studies mostly compare idealised great…
The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North…
As an increasing amount of remote sensing data becomes available in the Arctic Ocean, data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques are becoming widely used to predict sea ice velocity (SIV) and sea ice concentration (SIC). However, fully…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Following the mid-Pleistocene transition, the dominant period of glacial cycles changed from 40 ka to ~100 ka. It is broadly accepted that the 40 ka glacial cycles were driven by cyclical changes in obliquity. However, this forcing does not…
Self-organized criticality (SOC) is widely proposed as a fundamental mechanism for collective behavior, yet its role in objective-driven, heterogeneous adaptive systems underpinning real complex systems remains less understood. We introduce…
The classical DICE model is a widely accepted integrated assessment model for the joint modeling of economic and climate systems, where all model state variables evolve over time deterministically. We reformulate and solve the DICE model as…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
Identifying causal relationships in climate systems remains challenging due to nonlinear, coupled dynamics that limit the effectiveness of linear and stochastic causal discovery approaches. This study benchmarks Convergence Cross Mapping…