Related papers: Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast dif…
We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…
Epidemiological models are the mathematical models that capture the dynamics of epidemics. The spread of the virus has two routes - exogenous and endogenous. The exogenous spread is from outside the population under study, and endogenous…
In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…
The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19 contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion, and we used official data of the…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
Many models of virus propagation in Computer Networks inspired by {\bf SIS,SIR,}\\ {\bf SEIR}, etc. epidemic disease propagation mathematical models that can be found in the epidemiology field have been proposed in the last two decades. The…
Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
We propose here a new model to describe biological invasions in the plane when a strong diffusion takes place on a line. We establish the main properties of the system, and also derive the asymptotic speed of spreading in the direction of…
The goal of this work is to understand and quantify how a line with nonlocal diffusion given by an integral enhances a reaction-diffusion process occurring in the surrounding plane. This is part of a long term programme where we aim at…
Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…
An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
This article presents a new model to predict the evolution of infective diseases under uncertainty or low-quality information, just as it has happened in the initial scenario during the CoVid-19 spread in China and Europe. The model has…