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From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the…
We show the existence of traveling front solutions in a diffusive classical SIS epidemic model and the SIS model with a saturating incidence in the size of the susceptible population. We investigate the situation where both susceptible and…
In this paper we consider a model for the diffusion of a population in a strip-shaped field, where the growth of the species is governed by a Fisher-KPP equation and which is bounded on one side by a road where the species can have a…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is applied in several countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We consider discrete-time SEIR epidemic model in a closed system which does not…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…
In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…
This paper is a continuation of [2] where a new model of biological invasions in the plane directed by a line was introduced. Here we include new features such as transport and reaction terms on the line. Their interaction with the pure…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
We study the datafor the cumulative as well as daily number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak in China. The cumulative data can be fit to an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model studied on an Euclidean…
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…