Related papers: How Often Should People be Tested for Corona to Av…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…
Natural fluctuations have played a crucial role in affecting the dynamics of pervasive diseases such as the coronavirus. Examining the effects of irregular unsettling disturbances on epidemic models is important for understanding these…
The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
This paper presents several simple linear vaccination-based control strategies for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population…
Motivated by our intention to use SIR-type epidemiological models in the context of dynamic networks as provided by large-scale highly interacting inhomogeneous human crowds, we investigate in this framework possibilities to reduce the…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
In the current COVID19 crisis many national healthcare systems are confronted with an acute shortage of tests for confirming SARS-CoV-2 infections. For low overall infection levels in the population, pooling of samples can drastically…
This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…
The new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. One of the questions many policy makers, and governments are asking themselves is how the spread is…
As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the…
For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…
We study a SEIR model considered by Gomes et al. \cite{Gomes2020} and Aguas et al. \cite{Aguas2020} where different individuals are assumed to have different levels of susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
The efficacy of an intervention can be assessed by randomizing patients to different diagnostic tests instead of directly to an intervention and control. This principle is applied by allocating individuals to intervention if the test result…
Using recent data from voluntary mass testing, I provide credible bounds on prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 for Austrian counties in early December 2020. When estimating prevalence, a natural missing data problem arises: no test results are…