Related papers: Avoiding zero probability events when computing Va…

In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR)…

Value-at-Risk is one of the most popular risk management tools in the financial industry. Over the past 20 years several attempts to include VaR in the portfolio selection process have been proposed. However, using VaR as a risk measure in…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of computing both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with…

The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…

Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…

By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…

Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…

Population attributable fractions aim to quantify the proportion of the cases of an outcome (for example, a disease) that would have been avoided had no individuals in the population been exposed to a given exposure. This quantity thus…

Model uncertainty has been one prominent issue both in the theory of risk measures and in practice such as financial risk management and regulation. Motivated by this observation, in this paper, we take a new perspective to describe the…

In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate…

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo…

The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling…

We investigate the extremal aggregation behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) -- that is, its additivity properties across all probability levels -- for sums of one-sided random variables. For risks supported on \([0,\infty)\), we show that VaR…

Machine learning (ML) models used in prediction and classification tasks may display performance disparities across population groups determined by sensitive attributes (e.g., race, sex, age). We consider the problem of evaluating the…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…

CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a risk metric widely used in finance. However, dynamically optimizing CVaR is difficult since it is not a standard Markov decision process (MDP) and the principle of dynamic programming fails. In this…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

In this paper, we apply Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches on the problem of yearly electric generation management. In a classical approach, the future is modelled as a markov chain and the goal is to minimize the average generation cost over…

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…