Related papers: Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic …
We reconsider the Euler-Lagrange equation for the Skyrme model in the hedgehog ansatz and study the analytical properties of the solitonic solution. In view of the lack of a closed form solution to the problem, we work on approximate…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and…
We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We consider the SEIRS compartment epidemiology model suitable for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme limiting case of no acquired immunity. The disease-free and endemic fixed points are found and their stability…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the…
Covid-19 is one of the most dreaded pandemics/epidemics in the world threatening the human population. The dynamics of this pandemic is quite complicated and prediction of pandemic states often fails. In this work, we study and correlate…
A compact and accurate solution method is provided for problems whose infinite power series solution diverges and/or whose series coefficients are only known up to a finite order. The method only requires that either the power series…
We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…
For population genetics models with recombination, obtaining an exact, analytic sampling distribution has remained a challenging open problem for several decades. Recently, a new perspective based on asymptotic series has been introduced to…
Based on the classical continuous system initially proposed by Bailey in 1975, we present a novel Susceptible--Infected--Removed (SIR) model defined in quantum time, where the temporal evolution is governed by a non-uniform time grid. An…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…
Obtaining a closed-form sampling distribution for the coalescent with recombination is a challenging problem. In the case of two loci, a new framework based on asymptotic series has recently been developed to derive closed-form results when…