Related papers: Transparent Covid-19 prediction
In a recent report we have collected some data about the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy; in this follow-up we analyze how these changed after the mild restrictive measures taken by the Government two weeks ago and the large campaign…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…
We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 for some selected countries after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan City, China. We estimated the infection rate and the initial infected individuals of COVID-19 by using the officially…
This article presents a new model to predict the evolution of infective diseases under uncertainty or low-quality information, just as it has happened in the initial scenario during the CoVid-19 spread in China and Europe. The model has…
Within the context that Greece promises a success story in the fight against the disease, this paper proposes a novel method to study the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve in relation to the anti-COVID-19 policies applied to…
Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…
In order to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have introduced social distancing guidelines as public health interventions to reduce the spread of the disease. However, monitoring the efficacy of these guidelines at a…
The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of Covid-19 in Spain in the period 01-31-2020 / 06-01-2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…
By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…
A comprehensive retrospective analysis of public health interventions, such as large scale testing, quarantining, and contact tracing, can help identify mechanisms most effective in mitigating COVID-19. We investigate China based SARS-CoV-2…
We have studied the dynamic evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Argentina. The marked heterogeneity in population density and the very extensive geography of the country becomes a challenge itself. Standard compartment models fail when…
This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional…
Previous research has demonstrated that various properties of infectious diseases can be inferred from online search behaviour. In this work we use time series of online search query frequencies to gain insights about the prevalence of…
Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…
A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virus spread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations, medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus possible…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. Data time…