Related papers: Transparent Covid-19 prediction
COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, such as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a curative treatment or vaccine against COVID-19, have…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
We develop a Bayesian inference framework to quantify uncertainties in epidemiological models. We use SEIJR and SIJR models involving populations of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, dead and recovered individuals to infer from…
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in term of contact dynamics.…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
During the current Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, official data are collected with medical swabs following a pure convenience criterion which, at least in an early phase, has privileged the exam of patients showing evident symptoms. However,…
The COVID-19 pandemic is not only having a heavy impact on healthcare but also changing people's habits and the society we live in. Countries such as Italy have enforced a total lockdown lasting several months, with most of the population…
We investigate the mechanisms behind the quasi-periodic outbursts on the Covid-19 epidemics. Data for France and Germany show that the patterns of outbursts exhibit a qualitative change in early 2022, which appears in a change in their…
Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…
In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…
BACKGROUND An alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 to estimate the size, lengths and ending…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…
We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who recovered from the disease as quickly as…
During the recent Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the microblogging service Twitter has been widely used to share opinions and reactions to events. Italy was one of the first European countries to be severely affected by the…
The spread of COVID-19 has become a significant and troubling aspect of society in 2020. With millions of cases reported across countries, new outbreaks have occurred and followed patterns of previously affected areas. Many disease…
During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the…
The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds,…