Related papers: Transparent Covid-19 prediction
Here it is proposed a decomposition in components of the''waves'' which appear in the time series of data related to Covid-19 pandemic. The decomposition is based on functions of \k{appa}-statistics; in particular the \k{appa}-Weibull is…
The dataset described in this paper contains daily data about COVID-19 cases that occurred in Italy over the period from Jan. 28, 2020 to March 20, 2021, divided into ten age classes of the population, the first class being 0-9 years, the…
As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called…
This report provides a visual examination of Covid-19 case and death data. In particular, it shows that country specific differences can too a large extend be explained by two easily interpreted parameters. Namely, the delay between…
We analyze the spread of COVID-19 by considering the transmission of the disease among individuals both within and between regions. A set of regions can be defined as any partition of a population such that travel/social contact within each…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics,…
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…
More and more countries show a significant slowdown in the number of new COVID-19 infections due to effective governmentally instituted lockdown and social distancing measures. We have analyzed the growth behavior of the top 25 most…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official…
In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed…
In this work, we study the causal relations among German regions in terms of the spread of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, taking into account the restriction policies that were applied by the different federal states. We…
A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated…
Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…
During the current COVID-19 pandemic it is imperative to give early warnings to reduce mortality. However, non-specialist such as authorities and the general population face several problems to understand the real thread of this pandemic,…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
In order to analyze the effectiveness of three successive nationwide lockdown enforced in India, we present a data-driven analysis of four key parameters, reducing the transmission rate, restraining the growth rate, flattening the epidemic…
It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…
Attempts to curb the spread of coronavirus by introducing strict quarantine measures apparently have different effect in different countries: while the number of new cases has reportedly decreased in China and South Korea, it still exhibit…