Related papers: Maximum likelihood estimation for mixed fractional…
This work focuses on a slow-fast system perturbed by mixed fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in(1/2,1)$. The integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion is the generalized Riemann-Stieltjes integral and the integral…
In this paper we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing distribution of the parameters of a linear stochastic dynamical system. This includes, for example, pharmacokinetic population models with process and…
In recent years, we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate for these scenarios. However, reliable streaming…
The random intensity of noise approach to 1D Laval-Dubrulle-Nazarenko model is used to describe Lagrangian acceleration of a fluid particle in developed turbulence. Intensities of noises entering nonlinear Langevin equation are assumed to…
Fractional Brownian motion is a self-affine, non-Markovian and translationally invariant generalization of Brownian motion, depending on the Hurst exponent $H$. Here we investigate fractional Brownian motion where both the starting and the…
This paper provides rate-efficient estimators of the volatility parameter in the presence of L\'{e}vy jumps
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
We propose new nonparametric estimators of the integrated volatility of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at discrete times on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The proposed estimators achieve the…
We find a maximum principle for general non-Markovian semi-martingales. We do so by describing the adjoint processes with non-anticipating stochastic derivatives in a martingale random field setting. In the case of the L\'evy processes this…
This paper presents a methodology and numerical algorithms for constructing accelerated gradient flows on the space of probability distributions. In particular, we extend the recent variational formulation of accelerated gradient methods in…
We implement Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for the case of fractional Brownian motion with measurement noise and a constant drift. The approach is tested on artificial trajectories and shown to make estimates that match…
This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…
The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…
Asymptotic theory for approximate martingale estimating functions is generalised to diffusions with finite-activity jumps, when the sampling frequency and terminal sampling time go to infinity. Rate optimality and efficiency are of…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is a canonical model for long-memory phenomena. In the presence of large amounts of potentially memory-bearing data, the data are often averaged, which can change the structure of the underlying…
We consider a stochastic differential equation of the form \[dX_t=\theta a(t,X_t)\,dt+\sigma_1(t,X_t)\sigma_2(t,Y_t)\,dW_t\] with multiplicative stochastic volatility, where $Y$ is some adapted stochastic process. We prove…
Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…