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We construct the least-square estimator for the unknown drift parameter in the multifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and establish its strong consistency in the non-ergodic case. The proofs are based on the asymptotic bounds with…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-19 Marco Dozzi , Yuriy Kozachenko , Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko

We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-28 Carlo Cafaro , Sean Alan Ali

Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-20 Masaaki Fukasawa , Tetsuya Takabatake , Rebecca Westphal

We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph $G$ and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-22 Helene Massam , Nanwei Wang

We consider the problem of asymptotically efficient estimation of drift parameters of the ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under continuous observations when the Hurst parameter $H<1/2$ and the mean of its stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Kohei Chiba , Tetsuya Takabatake

We investigate the problem of joint statistical estimation of several parameters for a stochastic differential equation driven by an additive fractional Brownian motion. Based on discrete-time observations of the model, we construct an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-10 El Mehdi Haress , Alexandre Richard

We consider statistical inference for a class of dynamic mixed-effect models described by stochastic differential equations whose drift and diffusion coefficients simultaneously depend on fixed- and random-effect parameters. Assuming that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Maud Delattre , Hiroki Masuda

We provide a comprehensive set of new results on the impact of mis-specifying the short run dynamics in fractionally integrated processes. We show that four alternative parametric estimators - frequency domain maximum likelihood, Whittle,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-23 Gael M. Martin , Kanchana Nadarajah , D. S. Poskitt

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

In this paper we assume the insurance wealth process is driven by the compound Poisson process. The discounting factor is modelled as a geometric Brownian motion at first and then as an exponential function of an integrated…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-24 Linlin Tian , Xiaoyi Zhang

The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-26 Lorenzo Lucchese , Mikko S. Pakkanen , Almut E. D. Veraart

Using the random intensity of noise (RIN) approach to the one-dimensional Laval-Dubrulle-Nazarenko type model for the Lagrangian acceleration in developed turbulence [cond-mat/0305186, cond-mat/0305459] we study the probability density…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. K. Aringazin

We study parameter estimation problem for diagonalizable stochastic partial differential equations driven by a multiplicative fractional noise with any Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Two classes of estimators are investigated: traditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-27 Igor Cialenco

We develop a non-parametric, semimartingale optimal transport, calibration methodology for local volatility models with stochastic interest rate. The method finds a fully calibrated model which is the closest, in a way that can be defined…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-08 Benjamin Joseph , Gregoire Loeper , Jan Obloj

This paper derives several formulae for the probability that a Wiener process, which has a stochastic drift and random variance, crosses a one-sided stochastic boundary within a finite time interval. A non-explicit formula is first obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Yoann Potiron

This study makes the first attempt to use the 2/3-order fractional Laplacian modeling of enhanced diffusing movements of random turbulent particle resulting from nonlinear inertial interactions. A combined effect of the inertial…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Wen Chen

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the drift parameter of solution to the stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter less than $1/2$ under complete observation. We derive a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-11 Kohei Chiba

Many physical datasets are generated by collections of instruments that make measurements at regular time intervals. For such regular monitoring data, we extend the framework of half-spectral covariance functions to the case of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-23 Christopher J. Geoga , Mihai Anitescu , Michael L. Stein

The last decade has seen max-stable processes emerge as a common tool for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. However, their application is complicated due to the unavailability of the multivariate density function, and so…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-23 Simone A. Padoan , Mathieu Ribatet , Scott A. Sisson

The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) extends the standard Brownian motion by introducing some dependence between non-overlapping increments. Consequently, if one considers for example that log-prices follow an fBm, one can exploit the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-02 Matthieu Garcin