Related papers: Nonparametric estimation of variable productivity …
This paper investigates the {\em nonasymptotic} properties of Bayes procedures for estimating an unknown distribution from $n$ i.i.d.\ observations. We assume that the prior is supported by a model $(\scr{S},h)$ (where $h$ denotes the…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
A point process model for order flows in limit order books is proposed, in which the conditional intensity is the product of a Hawkes component and a state-dependent factor. In the LOB context, state observations may include the observed…
This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…
Nonparametric methods for the estimation of the Levy density of a Levy process are developed. Estimators that can be written in terms of the ``jumps'' of the process are introduced, and so are discrete-data based approximations. A model…
This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…
We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…
We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…
A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…
Efforts to model viral cascades provide a vital view into how they form and spread. A range of methods, such as Multivariate Hawkes Processes or network inference algorithms, attempt to decompose cascades into constituent components via…
We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…
Latent variable models have been widely applied in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable, so that one or more latent variables are required to reduce the complexity of the data. In…
The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…
Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…
Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…
There is a growing trend among statistical agencies to explore non-probability data sources for producing more timely and detailed statistics, while reducing costs and respondent burden. Coverage and measurement error are two issues that…