Related papers: Nonparametric estimation of variable productivity …

We have established a sparse estimation method for the generalized exponential marked Hawkes process by the penalized method to the ordinary method (P-O) estimator. Furthermore, we evaluated the probability of correct variable selection. In…

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

In this paper, we consider a one-dimensional diffusion process with jumps driven by a Hawkes process. We are interested in the estimations of the volatility function and of the jump function from discrete high-frequency observations in a…

This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…

Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…

The order flow in high-frequency financial markets has been of particular research interest in recent years, as it provides insights into trading and order execution strategies and leads to better understanding of the supply-demand…

We consider a sequence of Hawkes processes whose excitation measures may depend on the generation, and study its scaling limits in the near-unstable limiting regime. The limiting random measures, characterized via a nonlinear convolutional…

We consider the learning of multi-agent Hawkes processes, a model containing multiple Hawkes processes with shared endogenous impact functions and different exogenous intensities. In the framework of stochastic maximum likelihood…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…