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Multifractional processes extend the concept of fractional Brownian motion by replacing the constant Hurst parameter with a time-varying Hurst function. This extension allows for modulation of the roughness of sample paths over time. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Antoine Ayache , Andriy Olenko , Nemini Samarakoon

In the present work we demonstrate the application of different physical methods to high-frequency or tick-by-tick financial time series data. In particular, we calculate the Hurst exponent and inverse statistics for the price time series…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 M. Bartolozzi , C. Mellen , F. Chan , D. Oliver , T. Di Matteo , T. Aste

The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time $t$ is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like $t^{1/2}$. However, processes where the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-24 Lijian Chen , Kevin E. Bassler , Joseph L. McCauley , Gemunu H. Gunaratne

Accurate long-term predictions are the foundations for many machine learning applications and decision-making processes. Traditional time series approaches for prediction often focus on either autoregressive modeling, which relies solely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Kshitij Tayal , Arvind Renganathan , Xiaowei Jia , Vipin Kumar , Dan Lu

We study properties of the (generalized) Dickman distribution with two parameters and the stationary solution of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson process. In particular, we show that the marginal…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Danijel Grahovac , Anastasiia Kovtun , Nikolai N. Leonenko , Andrey Pepelyshev

The extremal index is an important parameter in the characterization of extreme values of a stationary sequence. Our new estimation approach for this parameter is based on the extremal behavior under the local dependence condition…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-11 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-04 El Omari Mohamed , Hamid El Maroufy , Christiane Fuchs

A general rate estimation method is proposed that is based on studying the in-sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics. The proposed rate estimators are based on simple least squares arguments, and are shown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Tucker McElroy , Dimitris N. Politis

Einmahl, de Haan and Zhou (2016, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 78(1), 31-51) recently introduced a stochastic model that allows for heteroscedasticity of extremes. The model is extended to the situation where the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-21 Axel Bücher , Tobias Jennessen

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-04-12 Silvio M. Duarte Queiros , Evaldo M. F. Curado , Fernando D. Nobre

In this paper, we set up the theoretical foundations for a high-dimensional functional factor model approach in the analysis of large cross-sections (panels) of functional time series (FTS). We first establish a representation result…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Shahin Tavakoli , Gilles Nisol , Marc Hallin

The aim of this article is to overview the problem of mean square optimal estimation of linear functionals which depend on unknown values of periodically correlated stochastic process. Estimates are based on observations of this process and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Iryna Dubovets'ka , Mykhailo Moklyachuk

This paper presents $whittlehurst$, a Python package implementing Whittle's likelihood method for estimating the Hurst exponent in fractional Brownian motion (fBm). While the theoretical foundations of Whittle's estimator are…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-04 Bálint Csanády , Lóránt Nagy , András Lukács

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-03 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

We discuss the problem for detecting long-range correlations in sequences of values obtained by generators of pseudo-random numbers. The basic idea is that the H{\"o}lder exponent for a sufficiently long sequence of uncorrelated random…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Nikolay K. Vitanov , Kh. Tarnev , H. Kantz

We propose and test a method to interpolate sparsely sampled signals by a stochastic process with a broad range of spatial and/or temporal scales. To this end, we extend the notion of a fractional Brownian bridge, defined as fractional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-05 J. Friedrich , S. Gallon , A. Pumir , R. Grauer

We discuss the link between uncorrelated noise and Hurst exponent for one and two-dimensional interfaces. We show that long range correlations cannot be observed using one-dimensional cuts through two-dimensional self-affine surfaces whose…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Alex Hansen , Jean Schmittbuhl , George Batrouni

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

We apply the concept of distance covariance for testing independence of two long-range dependent time series. As test statistic we propose a linear combination of empirical distance cross-covariances. We derive the asymptotic distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Annika Betken , Herold Dehling

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-08 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu