Related papers: Control Efficacy on COVID-19
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews is one of the methods to reduce the amount of infected persons and…
In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…
We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of…
In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…
The time varying effective reproduction number is an important parameter for communication and policy decisions during an epidemic. In this paper, we present new statistical methods for estimating the reproduction number based on the…
Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate…
While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…
During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…
Recent analysis of early COVID-19 data from China showed that the number of confirmed cases followed a subexponential power-law increase, with a growth exponent of around 2.2 [B.\,F.~Maier, D.~Brockmann, {\it Science} {\bf 368}, 742…
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…
Nowadays, the epidemic of COVID-19 in China is under control. However, the epidemic are developing rapidly around the world. Due to the normal migration of population, China is facing high risk from imported cases. The potential specific…
A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) of COVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic, therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paper estimates the…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
This paper presents the assessment of time-dependent national-level restrictions and control actions and their effects in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. By analysing the transmission dynamics during the first wave of COVID-19 in the…