Related papers: Ross-Macdonald Models: Which one should we use?
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…
Statistical models are used to produce estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Such models integrate multiple data sources to produce estimates and forecasts with uncertainty based on model…
We develop an agent-based model of the motion and pattern formation of vesicles. These intracellular particles can be found in four different modes of (undirected and directed) motion and can fuse with other vesicles. While the size of…
Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…
In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…
We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression $SEIR$ framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an $SI$ framework. The proposed model describes the evolution…
Understanding the social determinants of preventive behavior is vital for epidemic modelling and effective policy making. Traditional models emphasize imitation or rational trade-offs, but recent evidence highlights the role of social…
Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model…
Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…
Vaccination policies play a central role in public health interventions and models are often used to assess the effectiveness of these policies. Many vaccines are leaky, in which case the observed vaccine effectiveness depends on the force…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Our paper investigates distributions of exposed and infectious time periods in an epidemic model and how applying a disease control strategy affects the model's accuracy. While ordinary differential equations are widely used for their…
Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…