Related papers: Ross-Macdonald Models: Which one should we use?
The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise,…
Compartmental equations are primary tools in disease spreading studies. Their predictions are accurate for large populations but disagree with empirical and simulated data for finite populations, where uncertainties become a relevant…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
Dengue remains a major global public health concern due to its high mortality and economic burden. Mathematical modeling is essential to understand its transmission mechanisms and for evaluating intervention strategies. In this paper, we…
We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The…
In this chapter, an application of Mathematical Epidemiology to crop vector-borne diseases is presented to investigate the interactions between crops, vectors, and virus. The main illustrative example is the cassava mosaic disease (CMD).…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
We construct an epidemic model for the transmission of dengue fever with an early-life stage in the vector dynamics and age-structure within hosts. The early-life stage of the vector is modeled via a general function that supports multiple…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
Agent-based models provide a flexible framework that is frequently used for modelling many biological systems, including cell migration, molecular dynamics, ecology, and epidemiology. Analysis of the model dynamics can be challenging due to…
This paper describes a technique for analyzing the stochastic structure of the vectorial capacity using moment--generating functions. In such formulation, for an infectious disease transmitted by a vector, we obtain the generating function…
This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…
In this paper, we examine the long-time dynamics of an epidemic model whose diffusion and reaction terms involve nonlocal effects described by suitable convolution operators.The spreading front of the disease is represented by the free…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…