Related papers: Ross-Macdonald Models: Which one should we use?
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
We study a mosquito-borne epidemic model where the vector population is distinct in aquatic and adult stages and a saturating effect of disease transmission is assumed to ocurr when the number of infectious (humans and mosquitoes) becomes…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
Traditional studies about disease dynamics have focused on global stability issues, due to their epidemiological importance. We study a classical SIR-SI model for arboviruses in two different directions: we begin by describing an…
Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics…
In this paper we describe the dynamics of a vector-borne relapsing disease, such as tick-borne relapsing fever, using the methods of compartmental models. After some motivation, model description, and a brief overview of the theory of…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
The paper proposes to analyze epidemiological data using regression models which enable subject-matter (epidemiological) interpretation of such data whether with uncorrelated or correlated predictors. To this end, response functions should…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
Managing infectious diseases is a world public health issue, plagued by uncertainties. In this paper, we analyze the problem of viable control of a dengue outbreak under uncertainty. For this purpose, we develop a controlled Ross-Macdonald…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
Mathematical models of the real world are simplified representations of complex systems. A caveat to using mathematical models is that predicted causal effects and conditional independences may not be robust under model extensions, limiting…
Agent-based models of disease transmission involve stochastic rules that specify how a number of individuals would infect one another, recover or be removed from the population. Common yet stringent assumptions stipulate interchangeability…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…