Related papers: Gibbs posterior inference on multivariate quantile…
Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…
We characterise the convergence of the Gibbs sampler which samples from the joint posterior distribution of parameters and missing data in hierarchical linear models with arbitrary symmetric error distributions. We show that the convergence…
Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
Gibbs-type random probability measures, or Gibbs-type priors, are arguably the most "natural" generalization of the celebrated Dirichlet prior. Among them the two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior certainly stands out for the mathematical…
In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…
We study the convergence properties of the Gibbs Sampler in the context of posterior distributions arising from Bayesian analysis of conditionally Gaussian hierarchical models. We develop a multigrid approach to derive analytic expressions…
This paper aims to examine the characteristics of the posterior distribution of covariance/precision matrices in a "large $p$, large $n$" scenario, where $p$ represents the number of variables and $n$ is the sample size. Our analysis…
In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…
Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…
Youden's index cutoff is a classifier mapping a patient's diagnostic test outcome and available covariate information to a diagnostic category. Typically the cutoff is estimated indirectly by first modeling the conditional distributions of…
When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…
We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…
Many statistical problems include model parameters that are defined as the solutions to optimization sub-problems. These include classical approaches such as profile likelihood as well as modern applications involving flow networks or…
We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined,…
Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…
We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…
In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…
Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…
Motivated by the need, in some Bayesian likelihood free inference problems, of imputing a multivariate counting distribution based on its vector of means and variance-covariance matrix, we define a generic multivariate discrete…