Related papers: Understanding North Atlantic Climate Instabilities…
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate trends in sea-level atmospheric pressures, their variance and the variance of their day-to-day differences in nine regions of the world. Changes in pressure…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model…
This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…
In the era of climate change, the distribution of climate variables evolves with changes not limited to the mean value. Consequently, clustering algorithms based on central tendency could produce misleading results when used to summarize…
Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on near-shore and off-shore human activities, and its characterisation can help in the design of ocean structures such as wave energy converters and sea dikes. Therefore, engineers need long time…
Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wave field), the turbulent kinetic…
Accurate estimates of historical changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their uncertainties are important for documenting and understanding historical changes in climate. A source of uncertainty that has not previously been…
The potential of extreme environmental change driven by a destabilized climate system is an alarming prospect for humanity. But the intricate, subtle ways Earth's climate couples to social and economic systems raise the question of when…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
We study the dynamics of the El Nino phenomenon using the mathematical model of delayed-action oscillator (DAO). Topics such as the influence of the annual cycle, global warming, stochastic influences due to weather conditions and even…
The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore…
The climate is a non-equilibrium system undergoing the continuous action of forcing and dissipation. Under the effect of a spatially inhomogeneous absorption of solar energy, all the climate components dynamically respond until an…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…