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A dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) estimates is generated from the temperature observations of surface drifting buoys of NOAA's Global Drifter Program. Estimates of SST at regular hourly time steps along drifter trajectories are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-01 Shane Elipot , Adam Sykulski , Rick Lumpkin , Luca Centurioni , Mayra Pazos

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-05 Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen

Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-19 William Yik , Maike Sonnewald , Mariana C. A. Clare , Redouane Lguensat

In a recent paper attempts were made to quantify the respective solar and anthropogenic influences on the terrestrial climate, and to cautiously predict the global mean temperature over the next 130 years. In a double regression analysis,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-19 Frank Stefani

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-08-22 Stefania Scarsoglio , Francesco Laio , Luca Ridolfi

Leveraging available measurements of our environment can help us understand complex processes. One example is Argo Biogeochemical data, which aims to collect measurements of oxygen, nitrate, pH, and other variables at varying depths in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Moritz Korte-Stapff , Drew Yarger , Stilian Stoev , Tailen Hsing

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen

Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-10-15 Jeffrey B. Weiss , Baylor Fox-Kemper , Dibyendu Mandal , Arin D. Nelson , R. K. P. Zia

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

Wind-wave and ocean current interactions affect critical coastal and oceanic processes, yet modeling these interactions presents significant challenges. The western North Atlantic Ocean provides an ideal test environment for coupled…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-27 Maria Venolia , Reza Marsooli , Jaime R. Calzada

El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest source of interannual climate variability. Although its center of action is in the tropical Pacific, it has significant influences on the climate at the planetary scale. ENSO is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-05 Gian Luca Eusebi Borzelli , Cosimo Enrico Carniel , Sandro Carniel , Mauro Sclavo

Ocean dynamics constitute a source of incertitude in determining the ocean's role in complex climatic phenomena. Current observation systems have limitations in achieving sufficiently statistical precision for three-dimensional oceanic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-28 Van-Khoa Nguyen , Santiago Agudelo

Sea surface temperature (SST) is uniquely important to the Earth's atmosphere since its dynamics are a major force in shaping local and global climate and profoundly affect our ecosystems. Accurate forecasting of SST brings significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Xiaohan Li , Gaowei Zhang , Kai Huang , Zhaofeng He

Paleoclimate proxies reveal abrupt transitions of the North Atlantic climate during past glacial intervals known as Dansgaard--Oeschger (DO) events. A central feature of DO events is a sudden warming of about 10$^{\circ}$C in Greenland…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-29 Keno Riechers , Georg Gottwald , Niklas Boers

One of the defining features of both recent and historical cases of global climate change is Arctic Amplification (AA). This is the more rapid change in the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic compared to some wider reference…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-10-10 Richard Davy , Linling Chen , Edward Hanna

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Marcio Poletti Laurini

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-03-17 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Joshua S. North , Erin M. Schliep , Christopher K. Wikle
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