Related papers: A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value …

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…

Financial models have increasingly become popular in recent times, and the focus of researchers has been to find the perfect model which fits all circumstances; however, this has not been thoroughly achieved, and as a result, many financial…

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate…

This paper proposes a hybrid framework combining LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks with LightGBM and CatBoost for stock price prediction. The framework processes time-series financial data and evaluates performance using seven models:…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

We propose a hybrid method combining the deep long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the inexact empirical model of dynamical systems to predict high-dimensional chaotic systems. The deep hierarchy is encoded into the LSTM by…

Data augmentation with generative adversarial networks (GANs) has been popular for class imbalance problems, mainly for pattern classification and computer vision-related applications. Extreme value forecasting is a challenging field that…

We are concerned with robust and accurate forecasting of multiphase flow rates in wells and pipelines during oil and gas production. In practice, the possibility to physically measure the rates is often limited; besides, it is desirable to…

In regression models for spatial data, it is often assumed that the marginal effects of covariates on the response are constant over space. In practice, this assumption might often be questionable. In this article, we show how a Gaussian…

Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…

The application of deep learning models for stock price forecasting in emerging markets remains underexplored despite their potential to capture complex temporal dependencies. This study develops and evaluates a Long Short-Term Memory…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

The autoregressive (AR) model is a widely used model to understand time series data. Traditionally, the innovation noise of the AR is modeled as Gaussian. However, many time series applications, for example, financial time series data, are…

Latent Class Models (LCMs) are used to cluster multivariate categorical data, commonly used to interpret survey responses. We propose a novel Bayesian model called the Equivalence Set Restricted Latent Class Model (ESRLCM). This model…

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics,…

Interactions among multiple time series of positive random variables are crucial in diverse financial applications, from spillover effects to volatility interdependence. A popular model in this setting is the vector Multiplicative Error…

State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…

Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a kind of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for sequence and temporal dependency data modeling and its effectiveness has been extensively established. In this work, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical model…

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…