Related papers: A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value …
Volatility prediction for financial assets is one of the essential questions for understanding financial risks and quadratic price variation. However, although many novel deep learning models were recently proposed, they still have a "hard…
Trading and investing in stocks for some is their full-time career, while for others, it's simply a supplementary income stream. Universal among all investors is the desire to turn a profit. The key to achieving this goal is…
Spatio-temporal forecasting plays a crucial role in various sectors such as transportation systems, logistics, and supply chain management. However, existing methods are limited by their ability to handle large, complex datasets. To…
We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in…
We present generalized additive latent and mixed models (GALAMMs) for analysis of clustered data with responses and latent variables depending smoothly on observed variables. A scalable maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is proposed,…
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…
Latent class model (LCM), which is a finite mixture of different categorical distributions, is one of the most widely used models in statistics and machine learning fields. Because of its non-continuous nature and the flexibility in shape,…
Predicting stock market movements remains a persistent challenge due to the inherently volatile, non-linear, and stochastic nature of financial time series data. This paper introduces a deep learning-based framework employing Long…
Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…
Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or…
Various studies that address the compressed sensing problem with Multiple Measurement Vectors (MMVs) have been recently carried. These studies assume the vectors of the different channels to be jointly sparse. In this paper, we relax this…
Financial trading is at the forefront of time-series analysis, and has grown hand-in-hand with it. The advent of electronic trading has allowed complex machine learning solutions to enter the field of financial trading. Financial markets…
This paper demonstrates the potentials of the long short-term memory (LSTM) when applyingwith macroeconomic time series data sampled at different frequencies. We first present how theconventional LSTM model can be adapted to the time series…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
Investors and stock market analysts face major challenges in predicting stock returns and making wise investment decisions. The predictability of equity stock returns can boost investor confidence, but it remains a difficult task. To…
Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the…
Financial markets are highly complex and volatile; thus, learning about such markets for the sake of making predictions is vital to make early alerts about crashes and subsequent recoveries. People have been using learning tools from…
This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal…
We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of…